Vancouver Vacation: Day 7

The day was started late.  We got up after 9 and lazed around the house until noon.  We tried to get a geocache just down the road.  It was a multi-cache and the first stage required finding a set of numbers to be entered into our GPS unit.  The numbers turned out remarkably difficult to find.  In the end, we asked the cache owners for a hint and ended up finding it.  Tomorrow we’ll try to hunt down the other stages of the multi-cache.

Lunch was had at the pier followed by stops at the bookstore and the gallery.  For dinner we had fresh caught halibut that Uncle Kayem and Opa had packed back from their fishing trip.  The largest was a 60 pound halibut, and he tasted really good.

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Vancouver Vacation: Day 6

Paradise found.

Like lumps of coal we slept until 10 AM.  Warm toast, eggs, and a selection of meats and cheeses certainly goes well with sipping thick coffee.  I, of course, had to taint my coffee with some hazelnut coffee creamer.  It softens the harsh edge much like whacking your thumb with a ball-peen hammer wrapped in velvet.

With breakfast broken we piled in the car like clowns to a volkswagon.  Actually 2 ugly bugs.  Opa, Oma, Uncle Kayem and Auntie Emkay led the way to Paradise Beach and we followed hoping not to get lost.  This beach is a wonderful hideaway half way between Courtenay and Campbell River.

We arrived when the tide was at its lowest and the beach easily extended a quarter mile from the picnic area.  The tide was going to take all afternoon to creep up and swallow the beach. The kids immediately dropped everything they were carrying and made a B-line the water’s edge.  Many times we had to dodge around tide pools and stop and dally with the sand dollars, shells, and seaweed festoons matrixed on the sand.  Upon reaching the ocean, Opa found an old crab carcass and received squeals of delight and dread as he marionetted the carcass to the likes of a Godzilla decimating Tokyo.

A half hour later, our wave hopping and fish spotting was interrupted with the arrival of air mattresses.  Nature was immediately replaced with lolling lazily on the periodic waves.  Just a moment ago the kids were hopping, runing, and swimming like minnows.  Now, they lay as if just completing 12 hours of hard labor.

Eventually even the air mattresses lost their appeal as did the waves and open ocean.  We let the tide chase us back in by building sandcastles on a dry sand bar only to have the tide bring on destruction.  With each battle inevitably lost, a new site found, a new line in the sand drawn, and a new indestructible castle built.

Soon tiring of defeat, the troops gathered for lunch and then off to an unsuccessful geocache. Dad pigheadedly hauled the kids of to a mile long hike down the beach to ‘The Potter Shack‘ where no cache was found that day.  With testament to headedness-of-pig I hope to try again tomorrow.  As the day waned and the tide flowed, we were squeezed from the beach like so much sunscreen.

The day completed with ribeye steaks, spinach salad, and McWilliams wine.

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Vancouver Vacation: Day 4

Whew.  Fun can be so tiring.

I started this morning out with a three mile run along the False Creek walkway.  Just a week ago I was running along the Tanque Verde wash in Tucson.  There are many striking differences.  Most obvious was the water.  Tucson rivers flow only a fraction of the year and was certainly dry when I last visited it.   Tucson also lacks vegetation.  Many hard core Tucsonans will argue this point saying ‘The desert has a green beauty all its own.’  Visiting verdant Vancouver invalidates their vociferous polemic (yeah, yeah, I couldn’t think of an v-word for argument.  Suggestions?) .  And while both have sun, I tend to be found running from shade to shade avoiding the Tucson sunlight whenever possible.  This is all in stark contrast to running along the False Creek park.  The sunlight visiting me like a long absent acquaintance, the dense green foliage reminding me that I truly live in a desert, and when I close my eyes the salt sea air reminds me that it will all still be there when I open them once again.

The kids, my wife, auntie Eeay and I went for a long walk at Locarno beach.  The tide had gone out and the ocean floor lay exposed in all its naked muddiness.  The shoes came off and our toes wriggled in delight.  We dodged our way amongst the boogie-boarders and out to the transient coast.

My daughter found baby clams which she stored in a larger clam shell filled with salt water.  Occasionally the baby clams would stick out their tongues and wave to her.  At last she placed them in a warm tide pool amongst dense seaweed and away from the eyes and beaks of the ever-overhead seagulls.

Our path took us to several geocaches, through the green forest of the Endowment Lands, and then back to Granville Island for lunch.   Ironic that I had the clam chowder for lunch.

That afternoon we went swimming at the Stanley Park pool.  Though a coastal breeze kept the experience from being ideal, we salvaged the afternoon by yet again geocaching and hiking through Stanley Park.  We ended the day eating gourmet Japadogs at yet another beach drinking smuggled beers from 7-eleven thirstbuster cups watching the sun slide from the afternoon sky.

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Vancouver Vacation: Day 3

Stress is a wonderful thing when measured in retreat.  If its origin is a two week long PowerPoint marathon building up to a two day program review, and all that remains is the afterglow from the fiery mass of Microsoft that has slipped below the horizon.  Wednesday was my last day at work and now I look through salt sea air to the Vancouver skyline.  Enchanting.  The view is surreal from a balcony on the 15th floor of a hotel just south of Granville Island. The myriad of city lights aglow before a mountainous skyline appear as a thousand drops of crystal sea shed from a sinuous emerald and enchanted wyvern casting about in the twilight surf.

The bulk of today was spent driving from the 54th street resort to the Vancouver Holiday Inn (700 N Broadway).  The effort started at 9:00 AM and concluded at 5:00 PM.  The trip was uneventful.  The kids plugged into their DVD player.  My wife listend to ‘Breaking Dawn’, and I listened to Thomas Paine’s ‘The Rights of Man’.

Once at the hotel the universe snapped from the virtual to reality.  Well, sort of.  If you count walking around Granville Island dining on Chicken Caesar salads and desserting on Gelato some kind of reality.

In the evening the kids ran circuits between the pool and the dry sauna trying to recreate the Tucson climate.  My wife and I with Auntie Eeay Veeaitch shared a nice wine on the 5th floor patio and watched the sun tuck itself into bed.

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Vancouver Vacation: Day 2

A rest day.  We stayed at the 54th street resort mostly poolside.  Sushi for lunch.  Chinese takeout for dinner.  My daughter learned how to do a full flip off the diving board.  I am trying to talk her into a one and a half.

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Vancouver Trip: Day 1

This is the initial travel day of our Vancouver Island vacation.  After packing all day then driving to Phoenix, we caught the 8:11 PM flight to Spokane.  It landed at 10:55.  Taxi to the 54th street resort.  Glass of wine.  Sleep.

During the flight I taught my son how to play Sudoku.  We finished one and started on the second.  He consumed the puzzle with serious dedication.  Half way through the second he was struggling to keep his eyes open (it was 10 PM), and he said: “Dad my eyes are really tired.  I’m going to rest them for a moment.” and then he closed his eyes.

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2play or not 2play?

Would you play a game that had an 83 % chance of doubling our money and only a 17% chance of losing?

Suppose you are asked to play a simple betting game which has the following rules:

  • All the participants line up for a sequential chance to play against the house (ooooohhhh, the House!).  [Assumption 1: There is an unlimited source of players for this game.]
  • The first person to bets $100 and rolls a die.  If a 1 is rolled the person loses the $100 to the house.  If a 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 is rolled the player is paid $100 by the house.  [Assumption 2: The house has really, really deep pockets.]
  • For the next turn, if the last roll resulted in a player losing $100, then the next player (only one) is selected for the next turn.  However, if the last turn resulted in a win, then the next two players are selected for a turn.  Both payers bet $100, but only one die is rolled to determine both of their fates.  Again, if a 1 is rolled, both lose $100 to the house.  If any other number comes up, both players win $100.
  • Continuing in this fashion, whenever a player or group of players loses (a 1 is rolled) the next turn starts over with a single player, and if a win occurs (a 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 is rolled) then the number of people to play the next round is double the number of the round just completed.

Complicated? Here is an example:

  • Player 1 (only one player) bets, a 4 is rolled, player 1 wins $100.
  • Players 2 and 3 (two players) bet $100, a 6 is rolled, each wins $100.
  • Players 4, 5, 6, and 7 (four players) bet $100, a 1 is rolled, each lose $100.
  • Player 8 (only one player this time) bets $100, a 6 is rolled, player 8 wins $100.
  • Player 9 and 10 bet $100, a 1 is rolled, both players lose $100.
  • … and so on.

For each player, probability states the present die roll is independent of all prior rolls implying there is a 5 in 6 chance (~87%) of winning and a 1 in 6 (~17%) chance of losing.  Great odds!  Would you play?

Before you answer consider the previous game with tallies at each stage.

  • Player 1 (only one player) bets, a 4 is rolled, player 1 wins $100.
  • House is down $100
  • Players 2 and 3 (two players) bet $100, a 6 is rolled, each wins $100.
  • House is down $300
  • Players 4, 5, 6, and 7 (four players) bet $100, a 1 is rolled, each lose $100.
  • House is up $100
  • Player 8 (only one player this time) bets $100, a 6 is rolled, player 8 wins $100.
  • House is even at $0
  • Player 9 and 10 bet $100, a 1 is rolled, both players lose $100.
  • House is at $200
  • … and so on.

The point here is that each time a 1 is rolled, the house comes out an extra $100 dollars ahead.  As the game continues, the house becomes richer and richer.

The questions you have to answer are ‘If a person’s chance of winning is 5 out of 6, how come the house is getting richer and richer?’  and ‘If the house is getting richer and richer, should I really play this game?’

When you can provide compelling answers, please let me know.  To play or not to play has me stumped!

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House Prices continue to fall.

Here in Tucson, the house prices continue to fall.  Not only has the housing bubble  completely vanished, but the momentum of the market has brought the average price of a Tucson home to less than 90% of its non-bubble inflated price.

The vertical axis of the graph below shows the monthly average house price for a Tucson house divided by an estimated 5.1% growth curve.  The horizontal axis indexes time in months from 1988 to 2009.  A 1.0 on the vertical axis means the average house price has sustained a 5.1% growth during this period.  The 5.1% growth was estimated by curve fitting (using a compound interest model) over the pre-bubble data from 1988 to 2003 (seen as the relatively flat part of the graph).  The Standard Deviation of the normalized average house prices from 1988 to 2003 is 4.04%.

Normalized Average House Prices for Tucson, AZ

The bubble can be seen to start in early 2004 and grow to a maximum in March of 2006.  At that time, the peak normalized average house price for Tucson was at 1.39, or simply put, Tucson homes were 39% overvalued on average.  Since 2006, the housing market has been in steady decline with an abrupt drop starting in mid-2008 and continuing through March 2009.

The values I used are not adjusted for CPI.  Some of the 5.1% growth rate from 1988 to 2003 is not realized due to inflation.  While I do not know the inflation rates for Tucson, AZ over this period,  the national CPI  over the same period varied from 3 to 4%.  This implies that realized equity in Tucson homes only increase by ~1.5% annually.

In addition, Tucson average home prices typically increase from January to June and then decrease from July to December, but even this trend is overcome by the dropping home prices.  Presently, the average home price is 88% of its normalized value.

Looking for a great deal in a new home?  Try Tucson!  Looking for a better deal?  Wait a few months more.

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‘Pandora and Judas’ – two books, one universe, and lots of soul.

WOW

What else can I say.  After completing Peter F Hamilton’s space opera Pandora’s Star and Judas Unchanged I was left breathless and introspective.  Years ago after spending 5 hours to summit Yosemite’s Half Dome, I walked out on a granite slab that extends two meters out over the 4800 foot North Face precipice and looked down into the verdant valley in its entirety separated only by the air filled void measured in great detail by gravity.  Vertigo mixed with acrophobia stewed in a pot of amazement consumed me.  It was the precise feeling brought back as I set the conclusion of PF Hamilton down on the night table and reflected across the universe that contained the Common Wealth of Planets and its trials.

The two books have it all.  Re-lifing, supernovas, FTL spaceships, love, hate, and even aliens trying to kill us all.  Hardcore SF at its best.  It is certainly one of my favorite stories of all time.

Kudos Peter!!

PS.  If you are reading Pandora’s Star, go out and get Judas Unchained.  After the last page of PS is turned you’ll what the second book on hand.

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The Guild

About a couple of months ago Essee Gi gave me a tube link to ‘The Guild’.  See www.watchtheguild.com.  Hilarious!  I definitely had many LMAO moments while watching the first season.  Now they have four episodes of season two.

Between doing much gaming in my youth and having many friends continue the tradition, I can relate to the characters in a personal way.

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